North Korea nuclear issue faces critical phase early 2018
By Yi Whan-woo
How North Korea will react to peace overtures involving the PyeongChang Olympic Games in February will set the tone for the North's nuclear and missile issues for 2018.
Pyongyang may opt to manage the situation without making any nuclear or missile provocations until the sports event, and this may lead to Seoul and Washington delaying their annual joint military exercise. This could then be a turning point on the North Korea issue, which has caused ever heightening tension on the Korean Peninsula, according to officials and analysts.
However, if the North takes the other path and goes ahead with another provocation involving a nuclear-capable, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), this will escalate the clashes between Pyongyang and Washington, worsening the situation.
North Korea is a step closer to mastering nuclear technology and it may continue carrying out nuclear and ballistic missile tests in 2018 as it did this year. It may also do so to protest the United Nation Security Council's latest sanctions, which will restrict oil supplies to the reclusive state.
However, it could just wait and watch the situation, as South Korean President Moon Jae-in has proposed to the United States postponing the annual Seoul-Washington spring exercises, which will overlap with the Paralympic Winter Games to be held in March.
Pyongyang has claimed the drills are "rehearsal for an invasion" of the country.
If it makes a provocation even though Seoul and Washington agree to delay the drills, it will leave no excuse in North Korea's argument that it is developing the missiles as self-defensive measure against a possible invasion by the allies. It is also likely to put internationally-isolated Pyongyang further into a corner.
In a report released Dec. 14, the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) speculated that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may unveil a follow-up plan to consolidate his country's status as a "responsible nuclear power" in his New Year's address.
The IFES also speculated that Kim, at the same time, may also seek a chance for dialogue.
"The PyeongChang Olympics and the delay of the Seoul-Washington military exercises can be both an opportunity and a risk in terms of security on the Korean Peninsula," it said. "In that regard, February and March next year can certainly be a turning point."
"It may be possible that North Korea will not carry out a single provocation," a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said on condition of anonymity. "But even if it does carry one out, it may opt for a low-level provocation during the Olympics period."
Some expected North Korea won't respond to the peace overtures but just go its own way.
In his contribution to Fox News, Harry Kazianis, director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest, said that "2018 will be a virtual repeat of 2017," claiming "more missile tests starting in the early spring followed by at least one big nuclear test."
"And, to be fair, if history tells us anything, we won't see a tremendous amount of missile tests until the spring. But, Pyongyang will test its Hwasong-15 ICBM at least once more in the next few weeks, following a pattern of testing all new missile platforms at least twice," he said.
How North Korea will react to peace overtures involving the PyeongChang Olympic Games in February will set the tone for the North's nuclear and missile issues for 2018.
Pyongyang may opt to manage the situation without making any nuclear or missile provocations until the sports event, and this may lead to Seoul and Washington delaying their annual joint military exercise. This could then be a turning point on the North Korea issue, which has caused ever heightening tension on the Korean Peninsula, according to officials and analysts.
However, if the North takes the other path and goes ahead with another provocation involving a nuclear-capable, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), this will escalate the clashes between Pyongyang and Washington, worsening the situation.
North Korea is a step closer to mastering nuclear technology and it may continue carrying out nuclear and ballistic missile tests in 2018 as it did this year. It may also do so to protest the United Nation Security Council's latest sanctions, which will restrict oil supplies to the reclusive state.
However, it could just wait and watch the situation, as South Korean President Moon Jae-in has proposed to the United States postponing the annual Seoul-Washington spring exercises, which will overlap with the Paralympic Winter Games to be held in March.
Pyongyang has claimed the drills are "rehearsal for an invasion" of the country.
If it makes a provocation even though Seoul and Washington agree to delay the drills, it will leave no excuse in North Korea's argument that it is developing the missiles as self-defensive measure against a possible invasion by the allies. It is also likely to put internationally-isolated Pyongyang further into a corner.
In a report released Dec. 14, the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) speculated that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may unveil a follow-up plan to consolidate his country's status as a "responsible nuclear power" in his New Year's address.
The IFES also speculated that Kim, at the same time, may also seek a chance for dialogue.
"The PyeongChang Olympics and the delay of the Seoul-Washington military exercises can be both an opportunity and a risk in terms of security on the Korean Peninsula," it said. "In that regard, February and March next year can certainly be a turning point."
"It may be possible that North Korea will not carry out a single provocation," a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said on condition of anonymity. "But even if it does carry one out, it may opt for a low-level provocation during the Olympics period."
Some expected North Korea won't respond to the peace overtures but just go its own way.
In his contribution to Fox News, Harry Kazianis, director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest, said that "2018 will be a virtual repeat of 2017," claiming "more missile tests starting in the early spring followed by at least one big nuclear test."
"And, to be fair, if history tells us anything, we won't see a tremendous amount of missile tests until the spring. But, Pyongyang will test its Hwasong-15 ICBM at least once more in the next few weeks, following a pattern of testing all new missile platforms at least twice," he said.
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