Will North Korea opt for provocation on party foundation day?

North Korea test-fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile from waters off its eastern coast town of Wonsan, Oct. 2, 2019. / Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

Speculation is growing that North Korea may stage a military provocation to mark its ruling party's foundation day next month, according to diplomatic experts, Sunday.

In addition, its current economic woes from coronavirus and natural disasters and the upcoming U.S. presidential election are also raising the possibility over a "much-heralded October surprise," they added.

The totalitarian state is scheduled to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party, Oct. 10, and to this end, seems to have already begun rehearsals, with thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles practicing for a military parade in Pyongyang, according to 38 North, a U.S.-based website specializing in the secretive regime.

The latest report on a possible North Korean military provocation came from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) saying the North was apparently preparing to fire a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the Sinpo South Shipyard on the east coast.

"A satellite image of the Sinpo South Shipyard acquired on Sept. 4, 2020 shows some activity suggestive of preparations for an upcoming test of a Pukguksong-3 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the submersible test stand barge based here," the CSIS said.

The analysis came amid speculation that the Kim Jong-un regime has boosted its missile capabilities despite its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile testing since April 2018.

Rob Soofer, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy, said last week that the North was still trying to expand its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) reach, including SLBMs. Harry Kazianis, a U.S. expert on the North, also said Pyongyang could unveil a new type of ICBM during the celebratory event.

"It is a feasible scenario for the North to test an SLBM on Oct. 10," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.

The professor said an SLBM is an optimized weapon that does not cross U.S. President Donald Trump's "red line," or nuclear and ICBM tests that can pose a threat to the U.S. mainland.

"Trump did not take issue with a North Korean SLBM test in October last year ― although it can also reach the U.S. mainland ― and in that sense, a missile launch from a submarine, along with a display of an ICBM, can be carried out on the anniversary day," he said.

Starting this year, the North has made efforts to hold a celebration on a large scale, but fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by damages from recent floods and typhoons, has given little room for its leader to tout the occasion of the anniversary. Traditionally, the North has celebrated the anniversary in a larger manner in years ending with a five or zero.

In that respect, Kim may opt to demonstrate the North's military capabilities to ease public displeasure with the economic challenges they face. Last month, the North Korean leader admitted the country's current economic strategy had failed, planning to unveil a new five-year economic development plan in January.

The U.S. presidential election, scheduled for Nov. 3, is also bolstering speculation over a military provocation to renew attention to stalled denuclearization talks.

"As the North hopes that Trump will win reelection, an intolerable provocation may hurt his chances of staying in office for four more years ― the U.S. president touts his relationship with the North Korean leader as one of his administration's diplomatic achievements ― but absent any military action, the country may lose its bargaining power in future nuclear negotiations with the United States, regardless of who wins the election," Park said.

"In that respect, the North is trying to strike a balance with an SLBM test."

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