North Korea's denuclearization will take over 10 years: former US energy secretary

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the U.S. Secretary of State raise their glasses during Mike Pompeo's recent visit to Pyongyang. Pompeo said the North would allow outside nuclear inspectors. Yonhap

By Oh Young-jin

Put the ongoing beehive of activities for North Korea's denuclearization together and it would look as if a resolution were within immediate reach.

But one expert warns that this is nothing but an illusion and it may take 10 years or more to defang the North's nuclear capability because of a lack of mutual trust.

"It would be more a decadal timeframe than an annual timeframe," Ernest J. Moniz, a former U.S. energy secretary, recently told The Korea Times. "We start off and will have for a long time a situation where there is lack of trust on both sides ... we can't just wake up one morning and say now we trust."

The North's leader Kim Jong-un is said to be offering denuclearization within two years, which U.S. President Donald Trump seems happy going after to appeal to American voters in the coming midterm elections.

Moniz, a nuclear physicist, worked for U.S. President Barrack Obama, who was behind the now in tatters Iran nuclear deal and ineffective policy of "strategic patience" toward the North.

"Don't trust and verify, verify, verify," is Moniz's advice for the U.S. in working for the North's denuclearization. The phrase is his version of the Russian proverb "Trust but verify," made famous when President Ronald Reagan used it regarding nuclear disarmament negotiations with the Soviet Union.

Moniz cited the failed U.S.-North Korea 1994 agreed framework to have the North give up its nuclear program in return for economic help. "It is a short document that didn't put many constraints on anything. Of course, it didn't survive," Moniz said.

He said the new agreement would resemble the "Iranian agreement that is 150 pages long, very specific and has very strong verification measures," such as quarterly certification of compliance.

He recalled Defense Secretary James Mattis telling the Congress in April that he found the Iranian deal he read three times was a document that expected Iran to cheat. "That is the mindset we need."

However, Moniz is not skeptical about the North's denuclearization.

"I don't want to be Pollyannaish," he said, adding that the North's nuclear program can still be reversed. "It would be very bad if we are not open enough to pursue negotiations that can lead to meaningful results."

The trick lies, he said, in a "step-by-step" approach to help the North recognize that verifiably giving up its nuclear weapons will lead to overall net benefits in terms of national security and greatly enhance its economic opportunities.

Ernest Moniz, CEO of nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative and former U.S. secretary of energy, speaks to The Korea Times during an interview at the Westin Chosun Seoul, Friday. Korea Times photo by Oh Young-jin

"It will take many, many years to build up confidence and trust on both sides," he said. "Then there would be a good regional security situation in which North Korea can involve as a more nearly normal country."

He said any agreement also should reflect the interest of China, Russia and Japan.

"I certainly see no advantages to them for North Korea to have nuclear weapons," he said when asked if China and Russia are as interested as the U.S. and South Korea in seeing a nuclear-free North. "The resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue can't be looked at in isolation from the regional security context.

"One can count on China and Russia to support that goal but supporting it in a way that satisfies a regional security structure that is OK with them. China has issues in terms of the American military presence on the Korean Peninsula."

Moniz is now CEO of the nonpartisan Nuclear Threat Initiative aimed at preventing the use of weapons of mass destruction. He gave a lecture in Seoul about the nuclear threat and climate change on Oct. 4 as part of the East Asia Foundation program.

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